Analysis of Core PCE Price Index m/m (September)

What’s Core PCE Price Index m/m ?
The Core PCE Price Index m/m or Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy, is one of the most important inflation indicators in the United States. This index shows the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in one month compared to the previous month. The US central bank or the Federal Reserve uses this index as the main criterion for measuring inflation and determining its monetary policies.

The Core PCE Price Index m/m has a significant impact on the forex market, as it indicates the purchasing power of the US dollar and the opinion of the Federal Reserve on the interest rate. If this index is higher than expected, it means that inflation in the US is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target and there is a possibility of increasing the interest rate. This will strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. Conversely, if the Core PCE Price Index m/m is lower than expected, it means that inflation in the US is lower than the Federal Reserve’s target and there is a possibility of lowering the interest rate. This will weaken the US dollar against other currencies.

Today, October 27, 2023, at 12:30 GMT, the latest data on the Core PCE Price Index m/m will be released. The forecast for September is 0.3 percent, which shows a significant increase compared to the previous month (0.1 percent). If the actual number matches or exceeds the forecast, the US dollar will maintain or increase its strength. If the actual number does not match or falls below the forecast, the US dollar will show or decrease its weakness.

Author : ArmanShabanTrading Team (AST Team)

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